Closing the Gap Through Velocity (Not More Customers)

Those 3 channels will get us ~ 40,000 customers who are going to buy 4 tubs per month of Sourmilk. But that only gets us to 160,000 tubs, we’re still short by ~40,000 tubs.

So to hit our goal of $12M ARR in 12 months, what if we increase the velocity to 5 tubs per customer?

Can we do that? We absolutely can.

I tested this theory at a much smaller scale and it worked. The key insight is:

In CPG, to increase your velocity, you need to communicate the Three W’s consistently.

The Three W Framework

1. WHY

Explain why they need your product or why it matters. Humans naturally stick to what’s familiar. Customers need clear reasons to justify switching to a new product.

2. WHEN

Anchor the product to a specific moment in their routine. Adding a new product into someone’s life is hard. Replacing something they already do is easy.

AG1 tells you to replace your multivitamins.
Mud/Wtr tells you to replace your coffee.

Clarify the exact moment Sourmilk fits into their day.

People need a cue.

3. HOW

Show customers practical ways to use your product.

For example, if we consistently tell them they can use our yogurt as a post-workout snack (like a cleaner protein bar), then whenever they think “post-workout snack,” Sourmilk should come to mind.

When → Why → How → Habit → Frequency ↑ → Velocity ↑

Alternatively, there are short-term hacks to increase velocity like limited-edition flavor drops, upselling, etc. but for long-term impact, we have to change behavior.

Closing Thoughts:

So what do you think? Is it possible to get to $12M ARR in 12 months?

If you ask me… I’d say I don’t know. Right now, everything is a presumption and presumptions sank the Titanic.

I didn’t have much data to work with, and we need hard data to validate every lever.

But the model, the channels, and the behavioral strategy give us a clear direction and a fighting chance.